Friday, July 1, 2011

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  • msp1976
    04-08 08:17 AM
    The summary document says that Whistleblower protection does not protect immigration status. So the current language of "Whistleblower protection" has much new to offer because Whistleblower protection is already part of the federal law (outside of immigration act). Here is some info:
    http://www.dol.gov/compliance/guide/whistle.htm
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whistleblower

    Yeah right....
    If the whistleblower protection does not protect the non-immigrant status, nobody would blow THAT whistle, would they ??
    I am amazed by the kind of circular logic these people concoct....





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  • learning01
    05-24 01:00 PM
    It's a request.





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  • gc_check
    04-07 07:42 PM
    H1B program for sure needs to be reformed, a constructive reform, not the one we see in this bill now. Some of the items in bill would indirectly kill the program than reform it. I'm very concerned, given the current situation; the H1B numbers running out on the opening day itself, this bill might get some consideration and attention. At least if we manage a get a clause that allows people with approved I-140 or labour apply for AOS, even when the EB Visa numbers are not available will help many many members of this group. Atleast you can get an EAD and get out of this H1B mess...

    Every one going through this process have a moral responsibility and have to do their part, Even if not part of the core, we need to atleast email, mail or call Senator/Congressmen office when required and contribute what you can to IV to help the folks who put in their precious time and work more or less full time on time, in spite having their own family and full time work.





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  • Macaca
    12-21 09:53 AM
    Despite �High Note,� Bush Scolds Congress as Wasteful (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/21/washington/21bush.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1198249370-yXwz0kW/+W6bJYa4zIwlqA) By STEVEN LEE MYERS | NY Times, Dec 21, 2007

    WASHINGTON � Having beaten back most of the Democrats� legislative initiatives, President Bush chided Congress on Thursday for wasteful spending and announced that his budget director would seek ways to reverse some of the thousands of spending projects attached to a huge spending bill.

    Mr. Bush said he and the Congress had ended the year �on a high note,� welcoming a new energy bill, provisions to help people struggling to refinance mortgages, a deferral of the alternative minimum tax that could have affected millions of middle-class taxpayers and an agreement on a $555 billion spending plan that avoided new taxes.

    But reflecting the partisan divides that overshadowed those accomplishments, he promptly criticized Congress, citing a sluggish pace of work, refusal to adopt other pieces of legislation important to the White House and its affection for pet spending projects known as earmarks.

    �The omnibus bill was approved at the last minute, nearly three months after the end of the fiscal year,� Mr. Bush said, returning to a near-constant theme of accusing the Democrats who control Congress of fiscal irresponsibility. �When Congress wastes so much time and leaves its work to the final days before Christmas, it is not a responsible way to run this government.�

    The flurry of activity virtually ending the first session of the 110th Congress left many issues unresolved, setting the stage for new confrontations when Congress returns after the holidays. They include expanding a federal health care program for children, extending legislation allowing intelligence agencies to monitor communications and approving more spending for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Congress has so far agreed to $70 billion of the $196 billion the White House has requested in emergency spending for the wars.

    Mr. Bush offered no indication that he would be any more compromising with the Democrats.

    �Next year is an election year, but that does not relieve us of our responsibility to carry out the people�s business,� he said. �The American people did not elect us to govern in odd years and campaign in even years.�

    For Mr. Bush and the White House, who began the year facing Democratic majorities in Congress, the mood near the end of the session was almost ebullient. After shoring up wavering support for Iraq from Republicans in the summer, the White House managed to keep the party united, defeating Democratic initiatives, even if failing to win Mr. Bush�s own proposals, most prominently changes in immigration laws.

    �On taxes, and national security issues generally, Republicans are in lockstep,� the White House director of legislative affairs, Candi Wolff, said in an interview, describing the president�s ability to hold his party. �We could hold the House on most votes at 146, and therefore had the veto-sustaining strength to say that bad legislation can�t get through.�

    At his news conference, Mr. Bush said that the budget director, James A. Nussle, would review 9,800 earmarks in the last spending bill, along with 2,100 more attached to a military spending bill passed earlier.

    Mr. Nussle�s spokesman, Sean M. Kevelighan, said the administration could seek to cut or redirect some spending projects approved by Congress.

    �There are potential options available,� Mr. Kevelighan said, adding that it was too soon to say what, if any, spending projects could be eliminated or changed.

    Frustrated Democrats accused the president of hypocrisy for attacking them after years of increasing spending under a Republican-controlled Congress. They responded by saying the earmarks in current spending bill were far more transparent � and so less wasteful � than those passed by Republican majorities during Mr. Bush�s presidency.

    �Nobody said we were going to end them,� Representative Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, said in a telephone interview in which he boasted of two of his own earmarks for schools and the police in his district. �We said you�d know who put them in.�



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  • Macaca
    05-02 05:38 PM
    Don't kowtow to China now (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/dont-kowtow-to-china-now/story-fn59niix-1226047967727) By Paul Dibb | The Australian

    PRIME Minister Julia Gillard's visit to China has confirmed important strategic priorities for Australia. She called for Australia and China to gradually increase their defence co-operation as a means to promote good relations and understanding of each other. She also talked about wanting to see increased military transparency by China.

    Defence Minister Stephen Smith says he has also made it very clear to his Chinese counterpart that Australia expects China to abide by, and conduct itself, in accordance with international norms, including the international law of the sea.

    Given China's military build-up and its more aggressive behaviour of late in the East and South China Seas, these are entirely legitimate strategic interests for Australia.

    While Gillard has made it plain that she does not support the idea of the US and its allies containing China, her strong support of the US alliance during her recent visit to Washington will not have gone unnoticed in Beijing. It was appropriate that the Australian PM first visit Japan and South Korea before going to China. The fact is that the US, Japan and South Korea are - like us - democracies and allies of America. China will never be our ally.

    None of this undermines the PM's objective of encouraging increased military co-operation and defence links. We have to understand what China intends to do with its military forces in future.

    These are non-trivial issues for Australia over the next two or three decades. Of course it is sensible policy to encourage Beijing to be a responsible emerging great power and to be closely engaged in the development of security and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.

    It is also good policy to engage China across the full range of our bilateral relationship - political, economic, defence, cultural and human rights.

    But as Beijing's power inevitably grows this suggests that in parallel with engagement we should also have a policy of hedging against a more belligerent China in future.

    The Australian defence white paper of May 2009 states that by 2030 China will be the strongest Asian military power by a considerable margin and that its military modernisation will be increasingly characterised by the development of power projection capabilities.

    As China becomes more powerful economically, it can be expected to develop more substantial military capabilities befitting its size. But, as the white paper notes, the pace, scope and structure of China's military modernisation have the potential to give its neighbours cause for concern.

    If China does not become more transparent, questions will inevitably arise about the purpose of its military development plans. Beijing is developing some quite impressive capabilities that will eventually make it more hazardous for the US and its allies to operate in China's maritime approaches with impunity. This is increasingly recognised to be the case by the US and Japan.

    In Australia, there have been some fantasies lately suggesting we should be able to develop forces capable of attacking China directly. That is dangerous and stupid. We can, however, aspire to building force elements - including submarines - that would contribute usefully to a US-led coalition force, which would include Japan and Australia.

    This is not to see China as the next inevitable enemy. Now and foreseeably it will not have the awesome military strength of the former Soviet Union. And Beijing has no experience whatsoever of prosecuting a modern war.

    China needs a basically peaceful strategic environment so that it can give priority to governing an increasingly restive population of 1.3 billion.

    China is not a country without weaknesses. We need to remember this before we conclude that China will continue to rise and rise and not experience serious hurdles.

    To take one example, the one-child policy has resulted in a rapidly ageing population.

    By 2014, China's working-age numbers will begin to decline and by 2040 some 30 per cent of China's population will be over 60 years old.

    This will inevitably have serious implications for economic growth rates, which are already predicted to decline to about 7 per cent a year compared with 10-12 per cent growth previously.

    There are many other political, economic, environmental and corruption problems facing China in the 21st century.

    We should be wary of straight line extrapolations that predict China's inevitable growth to a position of regional supremacy.

    There are other geopolitical factors at work.

    If China becomes more aggressive it will face a closing of the ranks in Asia. Already, its more confrontational stance over maritime disputes and its unquestioning support of North Korea has led Japan and South Korea to be more pro-American.

    While it is true that many countries in the region, including Australia, are increasingly dependent on China for our economic wellbeing, there is growing unease about China's military build-up and its increasingly aggressive attitude over its territorial claims.

    The fact is that China's only really close friends in Asia are North Korea, Burma and Pakistan. India will inevitably find itself uncomfortable with China's growing power and that is already the case with Vietnam. Other middle powers, such as Indonesia, will also have to take account of how a more assertive China conducts itself.

    We have two scenarios here. The first is a China that continues to focus on its economic wellbeing and which increasingly sees it in its interest to be part of building a co-operative regional security environment (what Beijing calls "a harmonious region"). The second scenario is the one we must hedge against: it involves a militarily stronger and more dangerous China.

    The jury is out on which direction China will take. It is not prudent at present to panic and to build forces supposedly capable of tearing an arm off China. Nor is it time to kowtow and acknowledge the inevitability of Chinese primacy accompanied by, as some would have it, the equally inevitable decline of a US fatally weakened by its current economic difficulties.

    Paul Dibb is emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University. In 1978, as deputy director of defence intelligence, he visited China to open up defence relations.


    Another kind of Chinese History (http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3164&Itemid=206) By Mark O'Neill | Asia Sentinel





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  • unitednations
    08-03 08:50 PM
    Do you really think they would send the G-325a to the consulate? Do the consulates keep all the records? For how long? I heard from immigrationportal, somebody said they only send G-325a to the consulate if one applied a visa within one year prior to AOS application. Can anyone confirm this?

    If they send everyone's G-325a form to the consulates, would that result in another backlog? Thanks.


    How come the concern???

    USCIS forms ask questions for a reason right? They ask for the visa number, consulate issued, etc. There are a lot of inter-agency checks. When people are stuck in background check; it is a whole host of things that they check. Most of what they check is confidential and isn't even public; they are more investigative techniques.



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  • GCOP
    07-14 10:30 AM
    I already mailed the Letter to Visa Section, DOS with a request to allocate some Visa Number to EB-3(India) to help to reduce the wait time. Did not mention about EB-2 or any other thing. Just a Request for EB-3 (India).





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  • paskal
    07-14 04:57 PM
    if people have to debate this issue, surely we can do it without needless slander and accusations?

    i agree with GC applicant, words like that do not sound right and have no place here please.

    btw when the vertical spillover started, there was alot of angst, these last two years all retrogressed categories except EB3 ROW have suffered. so that is not true either. except that there was frankly nothing we could do about it. there were long debates similar to the current ones- then they were between Eb2I and EB3 ROW and no conclusion was reached of course, and nothing changed by screaming at each other. finally USCIS as stated by them, has taken counsel about that "change" they made and concluded that they made an error in interpretation. what they have actually done now is rolled back a change they previosuly made.

    i also want to say to all the EB2 I crowd here- all this chest thumping is pointless. EB2 I will go back, a lot, this is just a temporary flood gate to use the remaining Gc numbers for the year. meanwhile, the plight of EB3I is truly bad. lets please keep working on the recapture/exemption/ country quota bill trio that would incraese available Gc numbers- for ALL our sakes.





    Comments like heartburn ,jealousy over friends in EB2 does not sound right.There are my friends who have learnt from my mistake.

    Its neither appropriate to exclaim like this.Whateverthe case may be it is ofcourse injustice to EB3.

    Your reactions for the frustrations of EB3 is really the worst part you are doing for your own community.

    Why were you silent when EB3 Row were receiving ? Did you know at that time the vertical and horizontal interpretations.Bringing out the problem when its over is of no use either.

    Great ! Very nice wonderful own kind around.You want your GC right ,dont worry.

    This shows nature,when own kind dont respect others neither will outsider.



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  • Pagal
    03-23 05:39 PM
    Hello,

    I had similar calls two times from IO so far...first to ask for documents (which I sent last month) and second on past Saturday to ask if I could come to the office to give new fingerprints (as the old ones have expired).

    It is nice to see USCIS becoming more proactive...all the best!





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  • sledge_hammer
    03-24 07:54 AM
    Thanks for your insight. Its about time most of us here understand not to take immigration rules lightly, and I've been preaching this for the longest time already!

    People here had their own justification about "consulting". Well, this is what they get for exploiting loopholes.

    A lot of the list and questions that you are being asked is what department of labor asks when they are investigating possible h-1b violations. What they have asked you is usually in those types of investigations.

    There is a lot of things going on behind the scenes that many people are not aware of or totally clueless to.

    Many people are trying to make the GC easier for themselves whereas the real focus should be a defensive measure.

    Right now;

    VERMONT SERVICE CENTER is denying many, many h-1b's. These h-1b's are for companies who file greencards. If they are assessing that these companies do not have temporary jobs that require a degree then do you not think it is going to gravitate towards employment base greencards?

    They are figuring out through requesting of payroll records, w'2's, consulate denials, etc., that many, many people never joined companies; didn't get paid, transferred to other companies shortly upon arrival.

    It looks like USCIS/DOL have gone to zero tolerance and have devised ways to pierce through favorable rules protecting immigrant wannabe's.

    They pierce through 245k by going through possible immigration fraud by listing employment in the g-325a when a person didn't get paid and may not have had employer/employee relationship (i have actually seen this where USCIS cited possible immigration fraud due to this issue to trump 245k).

    USCIS is starting to challenge companies whether they have permanent jobs instead of temporary jobs; which looks like where this particular OP is going to go through. If they determine the job is temporary then that is going to spell doom for the EB greencard for him.

    People decided they were going to poke USCIS and take complaints to senators/congressmen (whom you all think are your friends but many of you do not realize that they are not your friends) and now everyong is going to see how the system in this country works. We are currently in a new day and age with immigration. Everyone should buckle their seat belts as this is going to be a real bumpy ride.



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  • learning01
    05-24 11:59 AM
    how can you say that the increase is not fair? Do you know how dependent and hungry these American Corporations, Universities or Research labs are? These are operating on a global scale. Innovation and Entrepreneurship are global traits. That's what these employers are seeking and getting.

    And Why not? A coke that costs about 5 c, the concentrate is made here and sent to China, Vietnam or Africa and sold 10 times more. And part the money comes back to this country, to its investors?

    Come on, you can't be so simple and naive? Grow up my friend. Read a wide variety of subjects. Tune less to the idiot box (TV), that shuts out all logical and analytical human ablities; instead it sways folks.

    The need for high skilled professionals is market driven and need based. Why would one spend atleast 10K to try to get even one H1. In advertising, in Labor Certifications, in foreign recriutment, then bringing him here.

    Brother, nobody does H1 employment for charity or social service. Not in this country. Not in any country. On the contrary. This country has dire need for nurses and other health care professionals. They are getting them here on a straight Green Card, on a silver platter. I am sure you must be aware of that.

    Americans are simply not enrolling in these high risk, hard work professions. period. QED.
    What say you?
    Folks,





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  • akred
    04-07 12:22 PM
    Will 115k enough by seeing 133k applications in one day? If 115k is reached we will ask unlimited. So there should be some system to see whether those115k H1b is used properly. Employers should not wait till october and they should get people when they require. If most of the H1b quota is used by bodyshoppers where will top US companies get?

    One possible solution is to establish a separate quotas for companies perfoming R&D in the US. Something like this already exists in the tax code where companies establish eligibility for the R&D tax credit. A similar bar could be used to administer a R&D quota for H1B or GC. That should address concerns around the quota for top US companies.



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  • GCKaMaara
    12-17 04:24 PM
    LOL!

    Nice to see some light moments here :)





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  • texcan
    08-26 07:58 PM
    A few nice kavitas by Dr. Kumar Viswas.

    Enjoy.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufrHWVnPy8g (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufrHWVnPy8g http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5RffA9QTWY)



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  • chanduv23
    03-24 02:14 PM
    I had little knowledge of immigration and of the type of people on h-1b and the type of companies who sponsor greencards when I first started perusing immigration boards. I thought many people were like me.

    Back in 2002 and 2003 when USCIS hardly approved any EB greencards; people were pretty emotional on immigration.com.

    Rajiv Khanna did a class action lawsuit against USCIS to start approving cases. He wanted some plaintiffs. Now; people on immigration.com were so emotional about their approvals and cursing USCIS all over the place. Of the thousands of people who would post; there was only something like 13 people who actually signed up to be plaintiffs. I volunteered myself to be a plaintiff but my case had only been pending for about six months at that time so I didn't think I would be a good candidate. However; only 13 people signed up compared to the thousands who were bellyaching about it. I didn't understand at that time why there was so little people who were willing to step u.

    In 2007 AILF specifically wanted people to join the lawsuit but were very clear that they wanted "clean" cases. I thought it odd that they had to specifically mention this.

    Murthy didn't want to file lawsuit because they thought it would have negative repurcussions against their existing clients in future cases.

    USCIS is pretty much the toughest agency to deal with and people who deal with them regularly know this. Time is on their side. They can deny cases and it takes years to get through the system and people have to have a legal way to stay in the country while this goes on. Because of this hardly anybody challenges them.

    I concluded that not many people have clean cases. Many people faked things on their f-1 applications; had bench time; worked in different locations then where h-1b was approved for, etc., etc.

    If you look at the different positions people take on these immigration boards; it is usually based on their own situation or people they know of and that leads them to post in a certain way.

    eb3 versus eb2
    permanent jobs versus consulting
    country quota, etc.

    The lawyers are the ones who see thousands of cases and what USCIS does and generally do not want to challenge them because it will spell bigger problems.


    btw; I am still a little suspicious of the OP. Local offices mainly do family base cases and not employment base cases. Their requests for information are pretty standard and follow the lines of family base information. They do not regularly do employment base interviews. If what the OP is saying is true then this would be a directive coming from headquarters. If that is the case then asking for "contracts" is going to be very problematic as they are going after the temporary versus permanent job.

    Texas service center has been known to call candidates/companies but it is usually for very simple information (ie., company tax return, asking verbally whether person is still in same job or verifying current address). They don't call and ask verbally for complex information like OP has stated.

    In fact just about every local USCIS office makes you sign a statement that you are not being represented by a lawyer and they "swear" you in that you are going to tell the truth under penalty of perjury.

    UN - why do you think USCIS allows

    (1) File for h1b from consulting company - when they think there is an issue
    (2) Allow labor substitution - when they think it is not good
    (3) Allow eb3 to eb2 porting - when they think it is not good
    ....
    ....
    ....

    the list can go on

    Why do you think people who are following law - not liked by USCIS?

    I am not blaming USCIS or not poking at them or your interpretation.

    I personally see that if you are not properly represented either by company or my a good Attorney - you are bound to have issues.





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  • NKR
    08-05 08:38 AM
    Why did they not take the employer to court? Why make the EB2 line suffer for these employer's faults?

    If an employer wrongly files your case under EB3 instead of EB2 or EB1, then the onus is on you to challenge them and take them to court if need be.

    And start the GC process all over again?. well isn't there an easy option of converting to EB2?. :)



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  • unitednations
    07-17 12:37 PM
    My employer back in 2001 and 2002 did not pay me in a consistent way..I was paid once in every three months during the time I was in bench. I have the W2 returns from those two years which shows average income of only 29K. However I had valid visa status and h1b approval from my employer as well as employment verification letter from them. Now i am with a new employer since 2003 and do not have any problems with them and get paid regurarly. After reading manub's post I am also worried if my I485 will be denied whenever I apply for it... or is there somethings I can take care of before? It is not my fault that the employer did not pay me consistently - right?

    A decent number of people were in this situation during those two years.

    uscis if they want can go all the way back to date of last entry prior to filing 485 to prove status (monthly paychecks, w2's, etc.). If cumulatively you did not maintain status for 180 days then it can be a problem. If you get this type of rfe then you have to go through great lengths to explain and get the out of status time to less then 180 days.





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  • xyzgc
    12-28 01:56 AM
    I am begining to beleive that WAR is not the answer, even though for the past 20 odd years, they have bled Kashmir, driven certain relegion members out, making them penniless, killing some of them and their family members mercilessly, doing the same in punjab (thanks to KPS Gill that was eradicated from the core), and using India's peace meaures in the last 7 odd years to infilitrate members who have created havoc in India.
    What India needs to do is strengthen internal security ('our sardar.....the chief...respectfully meant as i am a admirer of him, has done the right think by bringing in his most trusted man, PC to run home ministry....that man has been an asset in which ever position he has held....man of v.v. high integrity and honesty like our chief)
    Secondly as i said before,...... the super powers also are pretty much behind India and will not make the same mistake as they have done in the past as they know that this is universal/global problem...and the doublespeak will not work...the worry is....who to talk to there...(neighbouring country)....there are so many power centres....its total chaos....so i agree we should not go for war as that could be disastrous and open a exit strategy for all the dangerous elements and give them a longer/extended life to survive..........and continue with their nonsense......globally....WHY because once the war breaks out these dangerous elements will use their deadly toys that they have been provided with thanks to some of the regional powers....who....will then step in and insist on a dialogure....peace...etc etc..
    I am also surprised how sri lanka has agreed to go ahead with their cricket tour...i mean come on such a huge incident....in India....clear evidence...and to think and we sacrified a leader(possible PM) for them....STRANGE Behaviour....

    Without doubt, the internal security needs to be strenghtened. That is absolutely necessary. But is that sufficient?

    Why spend $26 billion yearly on defence budgets, if we are not to fire a single missile, worrying about the repercussions and what the dangerous elements will do?
    Is this only to be used in another Kargil-like war? WIf the answer is yes, that at least we should reduce our defence spending and divert it to make our nation secure. There is no possibility of that happening either.

    What is the probablity of another Kargil when a single terrorist attack is sufficient to throw the country into chaos?
    The whole idea is to destroy these terrorist outfits. Pakistan is not doing it. Should we not do it using our own arms?





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  • Beemar
    01-01 03:25 PM
    Oops!! Scratch that. Apparently these are old links. Some going back to 90's! Actually our country is threatening war for so many years that the links become all mixed up. It is embarrassing to see our country warnign pakistan with dire consequences for almost 20 years now, without dropping even a small firecracker in pakistani territory. Indian govt should at least threaten google to block all these stale links, or it should threaten google with surgical strikes :)


    Guys, sorry for starting this alarming thread. But the talk of an imminent indian strike in pakistan was all over the internet. I found so many links where indian govt threatens pakistan with war if it does not mends its ways. Just see for yourself.


    India Set to Launch 'Small War'
    http://www.commondreams.org/headlines02/0531-01.htm

    Delhi ups its war rhetoric
    http://www.atimes.com/ind-pak/BA27Df01.html

    US fears India may attack militant training camps in PoK
    http://www.expressindia.com/news/fullstory.php?newsid=10507

    India Hinted At Attack In Pakistan; U.S. Acts to Ease Tension on Kashmir
    http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P2-588205.html

    Bush appeals to India, Pakistan to `draw back from war'
    http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-8816140_ITM


    India, Pakistan shoot, talk of war
    http://www.dispatch.co.za/2001/12/29/foreign/AAPAKINDI.HTM





    mariner5555
    04-20 01:04 AM
    since nothing much is happening - I thought that I would post this - seems like a worst case scenario -but who knows ..some of his predictions have already come true ..this was interview on mar 24.
    ---------
    Q. Where are home prices going?

    A. Two years ago, I predicted home prices would fall cumulatively 20%, but now I believe it will be at least 30%.

    With a 20% fall in home prices, about 16 million households are under water. They have negative equity, which means the value of their homes is below the value of their mortgages. With a 30% drop in prices, you have 21 million households that are in negative equity. And since the mortgages are no-recourse loans, essentially they can walk away.

    Even if only half of the 16 million households were to walk away, that alone could lead to losses for the financial system of $1 trillion. Even a 20% drop in home values may imply losses of $1 trillion that are not priced into the market today. So that's the floor. Again, it could be higher — as much as $2 trillion — if prices fall 30% and more people walk.

    Q. You are predicting problems in commercial real estate, which we haven't seen yet. When do you expect the crisis to hit?

    A. The same kind of reckless lending practices that occurred in subprime also occurred in commercial real estate — things like really high loan-to-value ratios and inflated estimations of how much rent would increase. If you look at the CMBX index (which tracks bonds backed by real estate loans), the spreads imply a huge number of defaults on existing commercial real estate loans. More important, the market for new commercial real estate loans is totally frozen, like the one for subprime new originations.

    Q. But when will this happen?

    A. That shoe has not dropped yet. But I expect the severe recession in residential housing will lead to a severe recession in commercial real estate. The reason is simple: If you go west, you have entire ghost towns outside of Phoenix, Las Vegas and throughout California. Who is going to be building new shopping centers, shopping malls, offices and stores where you have ghost towns? Also, there has been a lot of commercial real estate activity in the last couple of years, including a huge increase in retail capacity at a time of consumer-led recession. So, I expect [a commercial real estate] collapse will occur in the next few quarters.

    Q. How bad will things get?

    A. I would argue this is the worst financial crisis the U.S. has had since the Great Depression. We haven't seen this type of real financial turmoil for the last 70 years. Of course, it's not going to be as bad as the Great Depression. But this isn't your typical run-of-the-mill recession that in the last two episodes lasted only eight months with a minor contraction in output. This is going to last at least 12 months and more likely 18 months, which is something we haven't seen in decades.

    Q. So you expect the economy to start turning around in mid-2009?

    A. The real economic activity, yes. But some parts of the system are going to be in a severe contraction for much longer; home prices are going to keep falling for another three years, in my view. And the financial mess is going to take years to clean up.
    -----------------------------





    funny
    09-30 01:52 PM
    I love to see Obama in White House too. My only concern is who drives his Immigration Policy. Sen. Durbin? The provisions in CIR 2007 were scary.

    I am here legally in this country from Sept 2000.
    Applied for GC in March 2006 (EB3 I), filed 485 in July 07, used AC 21 in April 08 and now working on EAD.

    I already had backup plan for Canada. If I wanted to keep my Canadian PR current I had to fulfill the 2 yrs out of first 5 requirement and was required to relocate to Canada in Aug 07. After July 07 fiasco and getting EAD, I thought of giving up on that back-up plan. It was not an easy decision, but we decided to bite the bullet and were thinking that AC-21 memo and EAD are good enough safe-guards for any denial if and when it comes. Also other thing I thought as it is it's going to take ages for my date to become current by that time at least my child's education will be done (he is in high school) and he doesn't have to go through relocation pains as far as school is concerned. He has already done that 4 times in last 8 years. So all in all we were satisfied with the decision to abandon Canadian PR and using AC 21. But now all of a sudden I see there are so many denials for straight forward AC21 cases and moreover if Obama wins then immigration policy are driven by Durbin. AC-21 is the thread that I am hanging on to, if that goes away then what....just don't want to think about it.


    Correct me if i am wrong, But, The general feeling that i am getting from this whole discussion is that, If Obama becomes the next President and if his Buddy Se. Durbin is driving the immigration issues then , Are they going to scrap all the pending Employment Based GCs, and, all the People who have already used AC21 will be in trouble, thats like starting the whole thing over again.

    I personally think that this will not be the case and the new laws will be applicable to the new applications, because, when you invoked AC21 you did it according to the law, how come you will be in trouble because of a new law.

    Its like saying , If a crime of theft is going to have a Death panelty starting 2010, then all the convicted people from past will be hanged in 2010." That somehow doesn't sound right...I would like to get opinion from other people.



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